Can Aubameyang maintain his superb goalscoring record for Arsenal in 2020/21?

For the first time in a while, there is an air of optimism around Arsenal going into the season.

Some of that is to do with the afterglow of a 14th FA Cup triumph, achieved at the expense of London rivals Chelsea.

That, though, is only superficial; many are sensible enough to understand a trophy at the end of a disappointing league season only papers over cracks at best. No, the real source of excitement is the presence of Mikel Arteta at the helm and what that represents: a return to lofty standards, but also the sense of direction and deliberation he seems to exude.

Brazil international Willian was first through the door this window as far as transfers go, arriving on a free with Arteta’s express approbation.

The signing of Brazilian defender Gabriel Magalhaes, which by all accounts is imminent, means the heart of the Gunners’ defence is sorted for many years to come. There is also work being done to secure reinforcements in midfield, going by links to Thomas Partey and Houssem Aouar – if Arsenal were to force either (or both) of those deals through, they would be very pleased with their summer business. The transfers may be financially challenging to do, but the targets are clear.

The big question mark is upfront though, and ironically involves the club’s most consistent presence over the last three seasons.

Captain Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, whose goals saw Arsenal through the business end of their FA Cup run, has one year left on his contract with the club, and there has been no announcement of an agreement regarding an extension.

It is a delicate situation that Arteta has weighed in on, impressing on the club the necessity of retaining its best player as recently as early August. However, whether or not he does sign, there is another nagging concern to pay attention to.

Aubameyang is into his 32nd year, and it is only logical to anticipate a downturn in production at some point. While modern advancements in sports science and nutrition mean players are more and more able to extend their careers, the Gabon international is now at the age where strikers typically (and historically) begin to decline. So, while 70 goals in 109 appearances so far for Arsenal is a gargantuan contribution, it is statistically unlikely he will continue to score at that clip for the year(s) to come.

For many though, this line of thought is somewhat generalist and simplistic. Aubameyang is a physical freak: rarely injured and absolutely dedicated to his physical conditioning. Former Arsenal head of scouting Sven Mislintat described him as a “great athlete”, and his lithe frame and almost ascetically low body-fat percentage bear that out. If any player is capable to extending his peak years, it is surely him.

It is worth stressing though that it is far from an exact science. Especially if he continues to be used as he has been in Arteta’s system.

So far, being stationed out on the left of the attack has done Aubameyang no harm at all as concerns his goal output. However, a deeper look at his Expected Goals (xG) numbers actually suggests he is getting fewer chances, but has been able to, by virtue of his own gifts, make a similar number of bricks with less straw.

There is a bigger tactical concern though, in that playing there places a huge demand on him to defend, tracking the opposing right-back in order to keep the side defensively secure. This means more sprints, and more miles on the meter for a player well into his 30s—hardly the most efficient use of the latter years of his career.

Ideally, the responsibility to extend his peak would work both ways: the 31-year-old keeping his body in the best possible condition, but Arteta also devising a means by which his explosiveness can be harnessed in a less exhausting brief. Whether that be by playing him upfront, or by having him remain higher up the pitch while a midfield shuttler covers the right side, it would allow him focus on being an ever-present outlet in the final third. (Think Jamie Vardy and how his dotage has been managed, despite the received wisdom dictating speedsters flame out earlier).

Whether or not Aubameyang ultimately opts to stay on beyond the end of the coming season, Arsenal will look to their talismanic captain to once more supply the ammunition upfront at least over the next year. There is no doubting that he can, but in order to ensure that he does, the keyword will be efficiency.